If you plan to live in the flat for at least five to ten years and can afford it, buy when you find the right one rather than waiting for the market. In our Prague example a year of renting costs CZK 264,000 and the first year of ownership CZK 264,100 in interest and running costs, so waiting saves you nothing. You come out ahead only if, a year from now, rates have fallen and prices have stayed put.
In October 2026 nothing points that way. Mortgage rates have risen for five months in a row, from 4.43 % in March to 5.00 % in August (ČBA Hypomonitor), and prices of older flats in Q2 2026 were 14 % higher year on year. Nobody knows what next year will bring, though, which is why we work through scenarios below rather than a forecast.
What does one year of waiting cost?
Jana and Tomáš rent a 2+kk (two rooms with a kitchenette) in Prague for CZK 22,000 a month. They have their eye on a flat for CZK 5,000,000, have CZK 1,000,000 of their own money and would borrow the remaining CZK 4,000,000 over 25 years at 5.00 %, with a payment of CZK 23,384. They are thinking of waiting a year to see whether rates drop.
| Costs over one year | Renting | Own flat |
|---|---|---|
| Rent | CZK 264,000 | CZK 0 |
| Mortgage interest in year 1 | CZK 0 | CZK 198,100 |
| Repair fund (fond oprav), insurance, property tax (assumed CZK 3,000 a month) | CZK 0 | CZK 36,000 |
| Lost return on CZK 1,000,000 of own funds (assumed 3 % a year) | CZK 0 | CZK 30,000 |
| Total | CZK 264,000 | CZK 264,100 |
On top of that, CZK 82,500 of the first year's payments goes towards the principal. That is not a cost but savings stored in the flat. A year of waiting gains nothing in itself; what decides is what happens to rates and to the flat's price in the meantime.
Three scenarios twelve months on
Jana and Tomáš buy a year later (loan at 80 % of the price, 25-year term, annuity payment; today they would pay CZK 23,384):
- Prices +5 %, rate down to 4.50 %: flat at CZK 5,250,000, loan CZK 4,200,000, payment CZK 23,345. The payment barely moves, but they need CZK 50,000 more of their own money and owe CZK 200,000 more.
- Prices unchanged, rate 4.50 %: loan CZK 4,000,000, payment CZK 22,233, or CZK 1,151 a month less. This is the only scenario in which waiting wins.
- Prices +5 %, rate 5.50 %: loan CZK 4,200,000, payment CZK 25,792, which is CZK 2,408 more than today.
The 5 % price rise is an illustrative assumption, not a forecast. For comparison, ČBA data show older flats up 14 % year on year in Q2 2026, and Prague flats up 11 %.
The asymmetry is plain. Half a point off the rate saves about as much on the payment as a five per cent rise in the price takes away. And the rate can be renegotiated at the next fixation, while a higher purchase price stays with you for good.
What can you expect from the Prague market at the end of 2026?
Dearer money and dearer flats than a year ago, with nothing in the data pointing to a quick turn. The ČNB repo rate has been 3.75 % since June 2026, and the Bank Board meets twice more before the end of the year, on 5 November and 17 December. A rise to 4.00 % is possible, not certain.
Bank offers are already climbing, though. Swiss Life Hypoindex shows an average of 5.79 % in October 2026, up from 5.42 % in August. Prices are rising as well: realised prices of Prague flats were 11 % higher year on year in Q2 2026 (ČBA), and new flats in Prague sell for around CZK 146,000–150,000 per m². In August banks granted 5,825 new mortgages, 13 % fewer than in July, and the average mortgage was CZK 4.59 million.
None of this means prices will keep rising. It does mean that a bet on a quick fall in rates has no support in the data. More detail is in our overview Mortgages in October 2026.
Your own deadlines matter more than the market
On market timing you can win or lose. On personal deadlines you can only lose, by missing them:
- The age-36 threshold. As long as at least one applicant is under 36, a bank may lend up to 90 % of the property's value for a home you will live in, instead of 80 %. On a CZK 5,000,000 flat that is a difference of CZK 500,000 in own funds.
- Probation period (zkušební doba). Most banks do not count income earned during probation, so changing jobs can delay a purchase by months.
- Parental leave. You can get a mortgage while on it, but the bank will count a lower income, so applying earlier is often the better move.
- Savings. After paying your own funds and the fees, you should still have a cushion covering at least several payments.
- Horizon. If you expect to move within 3–5 years, renting is usually the cheaper route. The long-run comparison is in Mortgage or rent.
If you buy and rates fall afterwards
That is what the length of the fixation is for. A shorter fixation brings forward the window in which you can repay the mortgage without a fee or move to a cheaper bank. Even mid-fixation, the bank may charge at most 0.25 % for each started year until the fixation ends, and no more than 1 % in total. On CZK 4,000,000 that is at most CZK 40,000, which a difference of one percentage point in the rate earns back in roughly a year and a half.
Buying while rates are higher is therefore not a 25-year decision. The rate changes with every fixation; the price of the flat never does. How to choose the length of the fixation is covered in Which fixed-rate period to choose.
Sources
- ČBA Hypomonitor – rates, mortgage volumes and property prices, 2026
- Swiss Life Hypoindex – advertised rates, October 2026
- ČNB – LTV cap of 80 % (90 % under 36)
- Act No. 257/2016 Coll., on consumer credit, § 117 (early repayment)